Sorry seems to be the hardest word

When I phoned LBC’s Sangita Myska show on Sunday afternoon I reflected on a word, and that word is this :-

Hubris

Wikipedia describes it, as an huge excess of pride or dangerous self confidence.

Well certainly Liz Truss has Hubris in spades,

When Ms Truss was running for leader of the party to which I belong, I decided to investigate.

I came across a book co-authored by Liz Truss, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Philp, Priti Patel & Dominic Raab.

Britannia Unchained.

I read the book and I immediately saw a guiding principle contained within, which was very alien to my Traditional Conservatism.

A value system based around Government helping the haves, and leaving the have nots.

A concept popularly known as Reaganism or Trickle Down.

I try very hard to play the ball not the man so :-

My arguments against trickle down, it is my feeling that Trickle Down cannot work in the British economy to any positive extent.

Our economy with its reliance on services rather than manufacturing, imports rather than home made & with its emphasis on high house prices….

In economic terms I would describe our Economy as exceptionally leaky.

It may have worked marginally in the US from whence the concept came as the US in many ways is a big enough economy for there to be several rotations of the circular economy before possible leaking out of the country or into unproductive assets.

On to the Man or the Woman in this case

When I first saw Liz Truss in the debates, I could see a woman completely sold out to the ideology, who was in a hurry, my reading of Brittania Unchained reinforced that view.

I have never seen a politician so completely enveloped in their ideology except perhaps Jeremy Corbyn.

That to my mind is extremely dangerous.

In many ways Liz Truss is very similar to Jeremy Corbyn, a complete ideologue but Liz seems to have no ability for self reflection or even an ability to listen.

Asa Bennett, Liz Truss speechwriter & Spad said on Iain Dale’s show on LBC that Liz Truss always wanted to make a splash, to go bigger, harder & propose higher than anyone else.

And it is my belief that the Brittania Unchained gang knew & know that their ideology is well outside the Overton window.

This why both Truss &Kwarteng never even tried to obtain an OBR report into their mini budget.

George Osborne tweeted that the assertion that the OBR stops politicians doing what they will with Tax & Spending to be a fallacy.

But the markets do expect stability and not sudden shocks, Truss &Kwarteng where warned of systemic risk of sudden actions, but they cut the guardrails in the sacking of Sir Tom Scholar

It is obvious that Truss & Kwarteng knew the consequences of their proposition, but hoped by force of will, to push it through.

They knew that they had to start with Tax Cuts for the well off as for their base a portion of the conservative party that Tax Cuts or Reaganomics is like Catnip.

But there is a wrinkle in their plan, as has been proved since Conservative party members are ground zero of the anti growth coalition. All they want & will permit is the sugar rush of tax cuts. So the Truss supply side revolutions could never happen, as all are predicated on money being available for investment, yet aside Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment is crowded out by Property ‘Investment’

It is this crowding out, caused by Governmental constriction of housing supply that is the real issue & the biggest problem that the country faces. This naturally causes inflation as wage increases & industrial unrest follow. It also keeps state costs going Up as benefits are running to keep pace.

Of course this demands high taxes, the very opposite of what Trussites & the Anti Growth Coalition want.

Levelling Up – A Chimaera

This week British Volt went into administration. British Volt was developing as a manufacturer of batteries for Electric cars. A concept which on the outside you would have thought would fly.

Researcher the Faraday Institution believes the UK will need ten gigafactories by 2040-

But No, & before we mention Brexit that was only part of the problem.

But I will bring in levelling up, because as has been highlighted this week levelling up is not proving to be the Panacea it has been sold to the North as.

And what have we been sold, that Levelling up was a way to revitalise the North with new better paying technological jobs to the North which was denuded by Margaret Thatcher’s revolution of the eighties.

British Volt could & should have been a cornerstone in that Strategy.

But was levelling up even ever a real proper Strategy.

Well there is a whole department for levelling up with its own minister, Michael Gove and yes I don’t decry the value of creating an Eden project of the North in Morecambe but to be quite frank that is a drop in the ocean compared to what the North really needs.

Yes some new money invested in shopping centres in places like Catterick is nice but…….

Coming back to British Volt, Levelling up & Industrial strategy to me should go hand in hand and we seem to have neither.

On the face of it British Volt as a concept could not & should not have been allowed to lose.

A great site in the right place in Blyth in the North East, an 14000mw Electrical Interconnector to Norway with Green hydropower coming ashore nearby. Also Blyth is in a perfect position to receive power from new offshore wind in the North Sea.

 With a need in the marketplace and exploratory contracts with Aston Martin & Lotus to develop products.

Investors were on board too with Glencore the mega mining company & tool hire company Ashtead.

But seemingly with poor management which seemed to want to be a “California startup” rather than a ground up Engineering led development.

Which is a huge problem for Conservatives, if we as a party are to keep power.

So No Levelling Up & No Industrial strategy.

And I look at another great white hope, Rolls Royce Nuclear Small Modular Reactors.

In the week that the US has approved the NuScale SMR design.

Again an obvious product with a desperate market need yet yes Government has supported financially we see no sense of urgency from Government to see Rolls Royce succeed.

And No growth, because largely the only Growth that can be had in the UK is now in the North as London & the South East is tapped out as it is too expensive.

And Productivity is in the Toilet and we have an aging workforce.

The Thatcherite triumph of Rentierism has reached it latter extent.

Well what is the answer.

From my personal point of view, I would like to see Government actually have a plan for both Levelling up & Industrial strategy.

Laissez faire is ok in the good times but Government planning is not a dirty word. Nor is Government investment as a shareholder in business.

Government strategy should be run well, by people who advise it to do so, a panel which includes the likes of Alan Sugar, Deborah Meaden, John Bamford & James Dyson.

Those people should be empowered & paid by government to work with Entrepreneurs to hothouse ideas into viable businesses.

And as I said before Government should take a stake.

PS The Levelling Up fund to which was pledged 1.7 billion in 2021 & 2.1 billion this year could have bought Two Rolls Royce Small Modular Nuclear Power Stations

https://www.nucnet.org/news/company-says-target-cost-for-uk-smr-is-gbp1-8-billion-11-1-2019

Nuts & Bolts of Climate Change Pt1

However I digress but it actually proves my point. There is no one in any of the Political parties who is looking at climate change mitigation on a Nuts & Bolts level, how mitigation can be implemented in a sensible fashion in effect without scaring the General Public & Electorate. There are really sensible big steps that can & are being made but it must be done sensibly & incrementally without a big bang. And this is the time to do those things I read with interest this morning, that there is a breakaway Group within the Green Party that supports the building of HS2. Now before I start I must add that I do not support HS2 in its current form at its projected cost. Now having worked in the Railways both passenger & freight in my early working life I completely understand the necessity of increasing capacity on the West Coast Main Line, but was it completely necessary to make it a completely New Route at Ultra High Speed. In fact the capacity necessary, is actually necessary in the Freight Sector where getting trucks off the road is a bigger priority from a climate perspective.

and make preparations as we make our way in recovery out of the Pandemic.

But as I say Parties and Government should be gathering together people within them who understand how the General Public do react to these Big Changes that are necessary and moderate Prime Ministerial desires to be “World Beating” and Best and actually take into account the costs to people’s lives and existence.

There is certainly a part 2 to this post, where I will talk in greater detail at some future date about those moderate changes

Conservative Party – A Democratic Manifesto

As we have seen over the last couple of months culminating in Theresa Mays Salzburg debacle, leadership of the party has truly gone off the reservation. Theresa may has consistently ignored the views of the grassroots party & her own MPs, prefering to listen to the advise of a senior Civil Servant Olli Robbins. We want our Party back. Below I have outlined some ideas for a new equitable party structure, please feel free to chip in with sensible ideas.

  1. The Leader shall be elected by one member one vote and be subject to recall if 10% of the members call for that. The Leader shall automatically come up for re election every five years or at the point of a General Election if earlier.

 

  1. The Chairman of the Party, shall be an elected position by One Member One Vote on a five year re-election cycle.

 

  1. The Party shall have a governing board with the following members, Central Office should serve the members not the other way round.

 

  1. Scottish Region
  2. North West Region
  3. North East Region
  4. Midlands Region
  5. South West Region
  6. South East Region
  7. London
  8. Young Conservatives
  9. Finance
  10. Disputes

 

1 – 7 shall be elected Regionally by One Member One Vote

8 by the Youth Organisation

9 & 10 Nationally by One Member One Vote

 

Policy shall be decided by the National board with opportunities for grassroots members to influence policy. The National board shall identify members who have experience in various disciplines and create working groups for such.

 

All local chairpersons should be elected by the local members & report to their regional board member.

 

All those standing for election should be local i.e. have lived within 10 miles of their prospective constituency for at least ten years

 

There should be an open register of donations over £1000 and all donation should be by individuals not corporate identities.

 

 

Brexit, a Lay Persons Guide

Well here we are September 15th 2018, 6 Months 13 days before we leave the European Union. Still haggling over what form that will take with a Prime Minister on the ropes.

Oh how we could do with a leader now with a real vision for the future now not a vision of the past, a Churchill or a Thatcher. I say that as an unashamed proponent of a Canada +++ situation, a Free Trade Agreement with the EU which ties us to none of their structures but an Agreed global standard for products which we already use which is called the CE mark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CE_marking . I understand those who clamour for a close relationship with the EU tying us into the EEA or EFTA because of the Automotive industry and Just In Time Deliveries.

There is plenty of  artificially created panic about delays at Dover which if our Government had approached Brexit in an Adult fashion would not have been an issue. Alot of this is due to Philip Hammond who has purposely had his head in the sand as a Remainer denying the funds for proper Brexit plans & preparation.

This leads neatly to Project Fear 2 with the media putting out Worst Case Scenario as fact,  house prices dropping 35%, necessary application for European Driving Licenses etc.

No Deal is being talked up where it is impossible for No Deal to occur because it would hurt the EU as much as us and would Bankrupt Eire.

So a deal will happen, the only question at the moment is what that deal will be. Possibilities are.

A No Deal Deal. 

This essentially means that we do the minimum to ensure Life goes on, ie agreement & implementation of Airline, Plane & Pilot Licensing to ensure people can get from A to B. Minimum entry of people for holidays & short business trips, preferably without the need for a Visa. Acceptance in the interim of World Trade Association rules & maximum tariffs.

Canada ++++++

My preferred option, this is a classic FTA (free trade arrangement) which is trade only and does not involve signing up to any of the structures of the EU or any of the Four Freedoms being :-

  1. Free movement of Goods
  2. Free movement of People
  3. Free Movement Of Capital
  4. Free Movement Of Services

Obviously in a way we would have Free Movement of Goods but that would only be Tariff Free.

It would involve some sort of disputes mechanism

We would then be able to totally control our Laws, Borders & Economy including Immigration

EEA or EFTA

This is in effect staying in the EU with none of the benefits of getting out, we would still be subject to the Four Freedoms but with NO seat at the table to shape or influence.

So

The situation right now is :-

Chequers which closely resembles EEA or EFTA has roundly been rejected by the EU because it breaks the Four Freedoms.

Emily Thornbury has said that Labour will vote against anything the Conservative Party puts forward, although how anyone thinks that the Labour leadership can hold the line on this is beyond me given Labours current turmoil.

David Trimble, Former Ulster Unionist Party Leader & Architect of the Good Friday Agreement has come out & said that the Row over the Northern Irish Border is Confected and it would not break the Good FridayAgreement to have a technology based Border system for Goods.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Trimble

Theresa May is still Flogging the Chequers Dead Horse

The Current Conservative Government controls the Legislative Agenda & Timetabling, there is No Parliamentary Time for a Peoples Vote & Theresa Mays Government will not grant one anyway because it has Control.